Regardless of one’s normative perspective, international tax—both its design and its substance—is in great flux. We see this playing out at the United Nations in ongoing debates and maneuvers regarding the UN’s new role in global tax policy making, including during the first week of February 2025, as the UN debated a new framework convention process. Of course, the debate is not just about the UN but rather about the system of global taxation itself, and this debate takes place against a broader backdrop of political and economic history and current tensions beyond tax law. Where global tax policy will land in the medium term, and how much it will change, is not clear. The Global South and the Global North have articulated different visions for where tax policy negotiations should occur (UN, OECD, or other), how those negotiations should be conducted, and what substantive topics should be tackled first.
Frederik Heitmüller’s timely ICTD working paper, Scenarios for Negotiating a UN Framework Convention on International Tax, provides readers a fantastic insight into this unsettled world with an accessible yet sophisticated take on the underlying dynamics. In the face of such momentous uncertainty, with great tax, fiscal and political relevance, governments, taxpayers, researchers, business organizations, media, NGOs, and other actors are all trying to interpret, anticipate, and predict how these dynamics will play out. Not surprisingly, there is a substantial flow of commentary, interpretation, and analysis. (My own co-author and I have contributed to this deluge of material.) But Heitmüller’s January 2025 paper broke through the noise for me. I found it a valuable framing of the players, issues, tensions, and options that was both nuanced and informative. The paper opens a window onto what has occurred, and how to map the future.
As the paper provides context for the reader, it simultaneously serves as an excellent literature review, though its contributions extend far beyond that. The early pages offer a valuable snapshot of the intellectual overlays on global tax debates and point the reader to useful additional resources for exploring those arguments in further detail. Having observed the mix of high level and technical examinations of global tax debates, the paper intentionally seeks to “bridge a gap both by synthesizing the different proposals for the way forward…and by connecting them with the debate as it has unfolded.” (P. 11-12.)
For those looking to understand what has been going on in international tax over the past few years, this paper will bring you up to speed in a manner that foregrounds the complexity and messiness of the issues at stake. And for those already immersed in the turmoil of international tax, Heitmüller’s perspective and analysis will help prod your own thinking. Building on the work of other scholars, the paper constructs a frame that emphasizes the tensions among three goals: full participation by the Global South and Global North, agreement on how global tax policy should be made, and accord on the top substantive priorities in global tax reform. As Heitmüller observes, one possibility is to imagine drafting a convention that supports all three by thinking of it “as an instrument for pluralilateral rather than universal cooperation.” (P. 29.)
From here, Heitmüller launches into an examination of rationales and tradeoffs for three scenarios (hence the paper’s title): (1) a focus on institutional deficits in global tax governance, (2) a focus on a South-South cooperation, or (3) a focus on new and consensual topics. Which, if any, versions of the three paths might be embraced remains a question for the future. But as Heitmüller concludes, these dominant pressure points may themselves be joined by other “contentious issue[s]” including that of funding global tax work. (P. 11.) More optimistically, though, he suggests that engagement on any of the three scenarios has the capacity to “incrementally lead to a more inclusive and stable international tax regime complex.” (P. 33.) Whether or not readers’ share Heitmüller’s predictions or degree of optimism, “Scenarios for Negotiating” guarantees readers a richer understanding of the many competing threads underlying contemporary global tax policy debates.
